Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.114819 1.178274 1.244110 1.317656 1.397690 1.482330 1.578853
2026-02-01 1.000515 1.088390 1.183499 1.294619 1.421560 1.562866 1.733202
2026-02-08 0.919099 1.018826 1.129823 1.263496 1.421430 1.603761 1.832665
2026-02-15 0.867991 0.976861 1.100811 1.253864 1.439883 1.661453 1.949715
2026-02-22 0.832608 0.949372 1.084953 1.256103 1.469452 1.730916 2.082556
2026-03-01 0.792184 0.912829 1.055168 1.238123 1.471034 1.763408 2.167981
2026-03-08 0.750307 0.872020 1.017504 1.207320 1.453255 1.768323 2.215129
2026-03-15 0.722641 0.847018 0.997627 1.197094 1.460180 1.804321 2.304970
2026-03-22 0.710206 0.840027 0.999435 1.214014 1.502615 1.888975 2.467459
2026-03-29 0.691950 0.824721 0.989687 1.214854 1.522851 1.943613 2.589942
2026-04-05 0.680024 0.816799 0.988789 1.226905 1.558344 2.020828 2.750821
2026-04-12 0.660318 0.798006 0.972803 1.217579 1.563129 2.053730 2.845773
2026-04-19 0.650203 0.791848 0.973837 1.232398 1.604064 2.143717 3.041180
2026-04-26 0.626929 0.767617 0.949906 1.211552 1.592527 2.154714 3.110161
2026-05-03 0.602426 0.740925 0.921644 1.183273 1.568394 2.144593 3.142360
2026-05-10 0.586550 0.725219 0.907669 1.174515 1.572468 2.177867 3.250464
2026-05-17 0.575478 0.715566 0.901537 1.176551 1.592554 2.237120 3.408651
2026-05-24 0.558725 0.697662 0.883338 1.160195 1.583504 2.248611 3.481543
2026-05-31 0.538904 0.675027 0.857850 1.132153 1.554965 2.226384 3.489995
2026-06-07 0.526283 0.661951 0.845367 1.122837 1.555178 2.251592 3.589452
2026-06-14 0.522308 0.660675 0.849434 1.138250 1.595067 2.345761 3.830631
2026-06-21 0.513912 0.652966 0.844023 1.139015 1.611256 2.399992 3.998118
2026-06-28 0.509044 0.650041 0.845336 1.149986 1.644452 2.485920 4.239652